Article Title：Facing the problem of uncertainty
Abstract：
In a certain sense, uncertainty and ignorance have been recognized in science and philosophy from the time of the Greeks. However, the mathematical sciences have been dominated by the pursuit of certainty. Therefore, experiments under simplified and idealized conditions have been regarded as the most reliable source of knowledge. Normally, uncertainty could be ignored or controlled by applying probability theory and statistics. Today, however, the situation is different. Uncertainty and ignorance have moved into focus. In particular, the global character of some environmental problems has shown that the problems cannot be disregarded. Therefore, scientists and technologists have in many ways come into a new situation. The Chernobyl accident is a dramatic example, however, problems such as a possible greenhouse effect, a possible reduction of the ozone layer, and so on are all of the same type. These encompass totally different problems than scientists and technologists are traditionally trained to deal with. In these cases, the standard use of statistics has to change, the burden of proof should be reversed, one should draw on different kinds of expertise, and, in general, science should be democratized.
Keywords: philosophy; philosophy of science; risk; science and society; science studies; uncertainty
DOI: 10.1023/A:1015001405816
Source：JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL & ENVIRONMENTAL ETHICS
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